Especially not on store shelves.
Because although prices have already fallen on global markets, they fell from the record level of 4.40 USD per pound, due to forecasts of record coffee harvests in Brazil, which accounts for one-third of global coffee production.
But the exchange price and the retail shelf price are two completely different things.
Commodity market prices often concern future purchases of future harvests.
And this is the price for coffee that will be harvested up to September—meaning it will reach the market at the end of the year.
But that still doesn’t mean store prices will fall.
Coffee harvested in August will reach store shelves at the earliest in early 2027. From a price drop on the world exchange to lower prices in stores takes almost a year—effectively about a year and a half from now.
And it may even arrive only toward the end of 2027.
In the meantime, further disruptions may occur due to aggression against Iraq.
Because one-third of the world’s coffee harvests from India, Southeast Asia, and East Africa pass near the Strait of Hormuz.
Fuel costs are also rising, which affects even Brazilian coffee—because transporting products to customers becomes far more expensive.
And so do cultivation costs, including fertilizers, whose production depends heavily on natural gas.
So will record coffee harvests make your small black coffee cheaper?
There’s a chance—provided peace comes quickly to the Middle East.
Another issue is a practice we all know very well: when raw material prices rise, everyone raises their prices. Which makes sense.
But when raw material prices fall, somehow it’s much rarer for anyone to lower their prices.
So a drop in coffee prices on the exchange doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll pay less for your espresso.
And if you do—probably not for another year.
The kitchen is my space for lifestyle medicine.
I'm not a dietitian or a doctor – I'm a chef, and a member of the Polish Society of Lifestyle Medicine. Nutrition is essential to a modern kitchen, and that's nothing new: working from Hippocratic dietetic principles was part of a cook's craft centuries ago. At Rude Kitchen I tie that tradition to modern science — and to lifestyle. Read more about how I bring cooking and lifestyle medicine together on the About page.